-
- Interest Rate2.25
- Inflation Rate MoM0.6
- Inflation Expectations2.37
- Retail Sales MoM0.9
- GDP Growth Rate0.2
- GDP m/m
- Manufacturing PMI55
- Services PMI 48
- Unemployment Rate5.4
-
- 3.75Interest Rate
- 0.3Inflation Rate MoM
- 3Inflation Expectations
- 0.6Retail Sales MoM
- 0.7GDP Growth Rate
- GDP m/m
- 52.3Manufacturing PMI
- 51.1Services PMI
- 4.4Unemployment Rate
Day Trading
Short Term/Scalp Opportunity
Waiting for confirmations
Swing Trading
Long Term Opportunity
Short at major resistance areas
✅
Fundamental Bias is Bearish
✅
Forecast is Bearish
✅
Trend is SELL
Dynamic resistance at R3 (0.58197) and R4 (0.58494) could be apropos entries
- 2026-04-02 01:05 UTCRISK-OFF: Investors become risk-averse, favoring safer assets during uncertain or negative market conditions
Risk-ON: Investors are willing to take risks, often seen during positive market sentiment. They may invest in higher-risk assets
MIX: Risky/Safe assets trades together
| R1: | S1: | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| R2: | S2: | ||
| R3: | S3: | ||
| R4: | S4: |
Daily:
H1:
M30:
M5:
Signal
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
waiting...
Pivot Points
Pivot: 0.57525
S1: 0.57280
S2: 0.57057
S3: 0.56812
R1: 0.57748
R2: 0.57993
R3: 0.58216
NZDUSD, Retail traders Sentiment
NZDUSD, Retails Liquidity history
>Newseeland Dollar
Net Positions:
Previous -23,057
Current -27,006
Changes -3949 -17%>U.S. Dollar Index
Net Positions:
Previous 3,693
Current 3,617
Changes -76 -2%
Licensed User access
Base: NZD
Interest rate: 2.25%
New Zealand 10Y Bonds: 4.665 , chg: 0.027 (0.580%)
Fundamental Bias: Neutral --
Fundamental Score: 5
COT POS: NZD: -27006 pos, last change: -17% (-3949 contracts)
Retail Short pos ratio: 27%
Retail trader Sell position: 0
Retail trader Sell volume: 0 lot
Distance to Resistance R4 (0.58494): 0.01028
Quote: USD
Interest rate: 3.75%
Bonds, U.S. 10Y: 4.311 , chg: -0.009 (-0.210%)
Fundamental Bias: Bullish Moderate
Fundamental Score: 5
COT POS: USD: 3617 pos, last change: -2% (-76 contracts)
Retail Long pos ratio: 73%
Retail trader Long position: 0
Retail trader Buy volume: 0 lot
Distance to Support S4 (0.56580): 0.00886
Forecast by Ziwox AI
Neutral
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate: 2.25%
Monetary Policy: Dovish Last change: Nov 26, 2025 (-25bp)
Bullish Moderate
Federal Reserve (FED) rate: 3.75%
Monetary Policy: Dovish Last change: Dec 10, 2025 (-25bp)
Economic compare
-
- Interest Rate2.25
- CPI y/y3.1
- Inflation Rate MoM0.6
- Producer Prices Change3.5
- Core Inflation Rate MoM
- Consumer Price Index CPI1327
- Inflation Expectations2.37
- Retail Sales MoM0.9
- Core Producer Prices MoM
- GDP Growth Rate0.2
- GDP m/m
- Manufacturing PMI55
- Services PMI 48
- Non Manufacturing PMI
- Unemployment Rate5.4
- Employment Rate66.7
- Initial Jobless Claims
- Non Farm Payrolls
- Average Hourly Earnings
- ADP Employment Change
- Balance of Trade0
- Consumer Confidence94.7
- Government Bond 10Y
- TOTAL SCORE-1
-
- 3.75Interest Rate
- 2.4CPI y/y
- 0.3Inflation Rate MoM
- 3.4Producer Prices Change
- 0.2Core Inflation Rate MoM
- 327Consumer Price Index CPI
- 3Inflation Expectations
- 0.6Retail Sales MoM
- 0.5Core Producer Prices MoM
- 0.7GDP Growth Rate
- GDP m/m
- 52.3Manufacturing PMI
- 51.1Services PMI
- 56.1Non Manufacturing PMI
- 4.4Unemployment Rate
- 59.3Employment Rate
- 210Initial Jobless Claims
- 0Non Farm Payrolls
- 0.4Average Hourly Earnings
- 62ADP Employment Change
- 0Balance of Trade
- 53.3Consumer Confidence
- Government Bond 10Y
- -4TOTAL SCORE
According to economic data, the base currency is outperforming the quote currency due to stronger economic indicators, encouraging traders to buy the pair. This positive outlook, driven by the base currency's strength versus the quote currency's weakness, increases the likelihood of buying activity to profit from this divergence.
Bullish points
Bullish points
Bearish points
- Dovish Monetary Policy
Bearish points
- Dovish Monetary Policy
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), often called the "Kiwi," is the currency of New Zealand. Like the Australian Dollar, the NZD is a commodity currency, with a heavy reliance on exports such as dairy products, meat, and timber. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) manages the monetary policy of the NZD. Key price drivers include global demand for New Zealand’s agricultural exports, interest rates, inflation data, and risk sentiment. The NZD often correlates with the AUD, as both currencies are affected by similar economic factors, including commodity prices and developments in the Asia-Pacific region. The NZD typically strengthens during periods of global growth and demand for commodities, while it may fall during economic slowdowns or increased risk aversion.
The US Dollar (USD) is the most widely traded currency in the world and the primary reserve currency. It is the official currency of the United States and is often seen as the global standard for trade and investment. The USD’s price is influenced by the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, inflation levels, and interest rates. Its dominance in global trade makes it highly correlated with other major currencies, especially the Euro and Japanese Yen. Key impact parameters for the USD include US economic growth (GDP), job market conditions, consumer spending, and the Fed’s policy decisions. As a safe-haven currency, the USD often rises during periods of global risk aversion. Its price is also sensitive to geopolitical events, such as US government policy changes and international conflicts.
NZDUSD Analysis
Introduction
The NZD/USD, also a commodity currency pair, is highly sensitive to agricultural export prices (particularly dairy products) and global risk sentiment. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has a direct influence on the NZD through interest rate policy. The NZD tends to strengthen when global demand for New Zealand’s commodities rises. Like the AUD/USD, the NZD/USD is closely correlated with China’s economic health.
Fundamentals and Interest Rates
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy is Dovish with the (RBNZ) current Interest rate 2.25%. Latest change was Nov 26, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Federal Reserve policy is Dovish and (FED) has set its interest rate to 3.75% by latest change, Dec 10, 2025 (-25bp).
(FED) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in USD. This tends to attract foreign capital into USD assets.
Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of NZD is -- Neutral and for the USD is Moderate Bullish.
Ziwox considering Weak Bearish bias for this asset and we expect prices to decline in the long-term.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for NZD is 5. and Fundamental Score for USD is 5.
Market Overview & Performance
In the current trading session, "Sydney & Tokyo", Market risk sentiment is Risk-OFF. The Switzerland Frank and United States Dollar recorded the strongest performance, while the Gold and Yen are weakest so far.
Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -0.56% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.03% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.06% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -0.03%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.04%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.07% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced 0.02% rise so far
Due to the market risk sentiment, NZDUSD price reduction is likely. Becasue investors become risk-averse from NZD, seeking safety amid uncertainty or market turmoil, leading to a sell-off in riskier assets and a flight to safe havens like the USD, JPY, and gold. Currencies tied to riskier economies (e.g., AUD, NZD) tend to weaken.
Market Sentiment and Positioning
NZD COT (Commitments of Traders):
Institutions Net Position on >Newseeland Dollar is -27006 included 10847 long, 37853 short and -3949 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold NZD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -3949 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.
USD COT (Commitments of Traders):
Institutions Net Position on >U.S. Dollar Index is 3617 included 20457 long, 16840 short and -76 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought USD for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -76 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.
Retail Traders:
Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the NZDUSD with 73% 27% ratio. 0 long pos and 0 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability NZDUSD prices may decrease.
Technical Levels and Support/Resistance
The NZDUSD pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 0.56580.
Technical trend is Sell, So If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a significant area to watch for potential reversal or consolidation.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 0.58494. Technically, If the pair continues to the upside, this resistance level could become a significant area to watch for sell entery potential.
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Before engaging in foreign currency trading, its important to carefully consider your own investment goals, experience level, and risk tolerance.
We want to emphasize that we cannot be held liable for any loss or damage, including potential profit loss, that may result from using or relying on this information. Your decisions are ultimately your own, and we encourage you to approach trading with caution and awareness.
