AUDCAD Analysis

Introduction

The AUD/CAD represents the relationship between two commodity-driven economies, Australia and Canada. This pair is heavily influenced by global commodity prices, especially energy (oil) and metals. Both Australia and Canada are major exporters of natural resources, with Australia focusing on metals and minerals and Canada being an oil exporter. Movements in the price of crude oil tend to have a significant impact on the CAD, while Australian export prices (iron ore, coal) affect the AUD. The monetary policies of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) also drive the pair, particularly interest rate decisions and inflation data.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The Reserve Bank of Australia policy is Hawkish with the (RBA) current Interest rate 4.35%. Latest change was May 05, 2026 (25bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Canada policy is Dovish and (BOC) has set its interest rate to 2.25% by latest change, Oct 29, 2025 (-25bp).
(RBA) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in AUD. This tends to attract foreign capital into AUD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of AUD is Moderate Bearish and for the CAD is -- Neutral.
Ziwox considering Weak Bearish bias for this asset and we expect prices to decline in the long-term.
mid-term Fundamental Score for AUD is 7. and Fundamental Score for CAD is 1. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term upside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Sydney & Tokyo", Market risk sentiment is Strong Risk-OFF. The United States Dollar and EUR recorded the strongest performance, while the Gold and New Zealand Dollar are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -0.37% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.03% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.07% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -0.12%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.21%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.04% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.09% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.05%
Market risk sentiment is OFF, Investors seek safety, favoring safe-haven currencies and assets while selling off riskier investments.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

AUD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Australian Dollar is 60155 included 129129 long, 68974 short and -25489 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought AUD for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -25489 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.

CAD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Canadian Dollar is -68882 included 53676 long, 122558 short and -37651 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold CAD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -37651 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the AUDCAD with 33% 67% ratio. 0 long pos and 0 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability AUDCAD prices may continue to rise.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The AUDCAD pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 0.98082.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 0.99959. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.