AUDUSD Analysis

Introduction

The AUD/USD is a commodity-linked currency pair, with the Australian Dollar driven by commodity exports such as iron ore, coal, and gold. The pair is sensitive to global risk sentiment, and its price typically rises when global demand for raw materials increases. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decisions also play a major role in the AUD/USD’s movements. Additionally, the AUD has a strong correlation with the Chinese Yuan, due to Australia's significant trade relations with China.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The Reserve Bank of Australia policy is Dovish with the (RBA) current Interest rate 3.6%. Latest change was Aug 12, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Federal Reserve policy is Dovish and (FED) has set its interest rate to 3.75% by latest change, Dec 10, 2025 (-25bp).
(FED) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in USD. This tends to attract foreign capital into USD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of AUD is Weak Bullish and for the USD is -- Neutral.
Ziwox considering Weak Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for AUD is 14. and Fundamental Score for USD is 10. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term upside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Sydney", Market risk sentiment is Strong Risk-OFF. The United States Dollar and British pound recorded the strongest performance, while the Gold and Australian dollar are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -10.07% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.97% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.89% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -1.17%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.91%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -1.07% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -1.14% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.97%
Market risk sentiment is OFF, Investors seek safety, favoring safe-haven currencies and assets while selling off riskier investments.Due to the market risk sentiment, AUDUSD price reduction is likely. Becasue investors become risk-averse from AUD, seeking safety amid uncertainty or market turmoil, leading to a sell-off in riskier assets and a flight to safe havens like the USD, JPY, and gold. Currencies tied to riskier economies (e.g., AUD, NZD) tend to weaken.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

AUD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Australian Dollar is 7146 included 109806 long, 102660 short and 21157 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought AUD for higher prices in long-term.
Last week 21157 repositioning Indicates that they are optimistic about higher prices in mid-term.

USD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >U.S. Dollar Index is -4405 included 17945 long, 22350 short and 2013 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold USD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 2013 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the AUDUSD with 24% 76% ratio. 0 long pos and 0 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability AUDUSD prices may continue to rise.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The AUDUSD pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 0.69765.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 0.70855. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.