EURJPY Analysis

Introduction

The EUR/JPY is a popular cross-currency pair that reflects the economic relationship between the Eurozone and Japan. It is influenced by the economic health of both regions, with the Eurozone’s economic growth and the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy being key drivers. The EUR/JPY tends to appreciate when there is an overall risk-on sentiment in global markets, as investors seek higher yields in the Eurozone.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The European Central Bank policy is Dovish with the (ECB) current Interest rate 2.4%. Latest change was Jun 11, 2026 (25bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Japan policy is Hawkish and (BOJ) has set its interest rate to 1% by latest change, Jun 16, 2026 (25bp).
(ECB) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in EUR. This tends to attract foreign capital into EUR assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of EUR is Moderate Bullish and for the JPY is Weak Bullish.
Ziwox considering Weak Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
mid-term Fundamental Score for EUR is 20. and Fundamental Score for JPY is 3. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term upside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Sydney & Tokyo", Market risk sentiment is Risk-ON. The Yen and New Zealand Dollar recorded the strongest performance, while the Gold and Switzerland Frank are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -1.31% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been 0.05% up so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been 0.15% up as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has risen by 0.07%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has risen by 0.27%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced 1.72% rise
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.16% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.02%
Market risk sentiment is ON, This means Investors embrace risk, driving demand for riskier assets and higher-yielding currencies while safe-haven assets weaken.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

EUR COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Euro is -72447 included 204975 long, 277422 short and -31109 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold EUR for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -31109 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

JPY COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Japanese Yen is -163412 included 101271 long, 264683 short and -11287 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold JPY for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -11287 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the EURJPY with 69% 31% ratio. 0 long pos and 0 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability EURJPY prices may decrease.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The EURJPY pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 181.108.
Technical trend is Sell, So If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a significant area to watch for potential reversal or consolidation.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 186.612. Technically, If the pair continues to the upside, this resistance level could become a significant area to watch for sell entery potential.