EURAUD Analysis

Introduction

The EUR/AUD reflects the economic conditions in both the Eurozone and Australia. The pair is influenced by commodity prices, as Australia is a major exporter of raw materials, and by European economic data. The EUR/AUD can show significant movements when there are shifts in risk sentiment or changes in the global commodity market.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The European Central Bank policy is Dovish with the (ECB) current Interest rate 2.15%. Latest change was Jun 05, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Reserve Bank of Australia policy is Hawkish and (RBA) has set its interest rate to 4.35% by latest change, May 05, 2026 (25bp).
(RBA) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in AUD. This tends to attract foreign capital into AUD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of EUR is Moderate Bullish and for the AUD is Moderate Bearish.
Ziwox considering Moderate Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
mid-term Fundamental Score for EUR is 10. and Fundamental Score for AUD is 7. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term upside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Sydney & Tokyo", Market risk sentiment is Strong Risk-OFF. The Gold and United States Dollar recorded the strongest performance, while the New Zealand Dollar and Switzerland Frank are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a 0.05% increase against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.02% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.02% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -0.03%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.12%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.03% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.04% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.02%
Market risk sentiment is OFF, Investors seek safety, favoring safe-haven currencies and assets while selling off riskier investments.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

EUR COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Euro is 29426 included 223055 long, 193629 short and -4087 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought EUR for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -4087 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.

AUD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Australian Dollar is 60155 included 129129 long, 68974 short and -25489 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought AUD for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -25489 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the EURAUD with 85% 15% ratio. 0 long pos and 0 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability EURAUD prices may decrease.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The EURAUD pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 1.61161.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 1.63624. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.